Palos Verdes Homes & South Bay Real Estate: the September 2026 Monthly Tape, Leading into October
Executive Summary (Scroll To Bottom For Projections Out To 2028)
September closed with an average sale price of $1,562,554. That is the highest September I have recorded in 36 years of keeping this tape, 1.2% ($18,731) above September 2025 and 2.7% below August. Volume was thin on every line. There were 1,334 new listings (44.5 a day, the fifth-lowest September in my record and 4.0% fewer than a year ago), 770 pending sales (25.7 a day, down 7.8% from last September), 488 closed sales (16.3 a day, essentially level with last year's 491) and 486 listings that expired or were cancelled (16.2 a day). That is 3,078 events in 30 days.
My first-derivative reading, the Absorption Coefficient (pending sales divided by new listings), was 0.577. August was 0.578 and last September was 0.601. It is still below the ten-year norm for September (0.633), but the shortfall has narrowed all year: 0.18 below normal in January, 0.16 in June, 0.06 now. Demand is not accelerating. It is catching up to normal.
My second-derivative reading, Escrow Fragility (the share of listings leaving the market without a buyer), rose to 38.7%. That is the sixth monthly increase in a row and the highest September since 2011. Part of that is the calendar: this reading climbs every year from spring into December. But it now sits 8.6 points above the ten-year September norm of 30.1%, and that gap was 3.4 points in February. Nearly four of every ten listings that left the market in September left without a contract.
Three price signals deserve your attention. First, the homes that went pending carried an average list price of $1,712,925, the highest of all 425 months and 18.7% above last September. Buyers are contracting on more expensive homes than sellers are bringing to market (new listings averaged $1,621,622), and that has been true three months running; over my whole record it has happened in fewer than one month in five. Second, new listings are priced only 3.8% above the average sale price, against a ten-year norm of 12.8%. Sellers as a group have adjusted. Third, the listings that failed were asking an average of $1,875,450, 20.0% above what actually sold. Homes that did close sold an average of 0.48% under list, after August's 2.03%.
Put together: the price level is holding near its highs (the three-month average of $1,597,202 is within 0.4% of the record set in February 2025), velocity is below normal and converging, and fragility is above normal and still rising. My read is the one I gave last month: a floor being formed, not a cliff. I have one new caution for the fourth quarter. October 2025 through January 2026 was the weakest stretch for prices in the past two years: all four months fell between $1.295M and $1.424M, and two of them were the lowest of the period. Even if prices do nothing more than follow their normal winter dip, the year-over-year comparisons you will read through January will show gains of roughly 5% to 17%. Those headlines will describe last winter's weakness, not this winter's strength, and I explain below why neither buyers nor sellers should price from them.
September by Category
| Category | September total | Per day | Share | August 2026 | September 2025 | Per-day change vs Sep 2025 | Average price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Listings | 1,334 | 44.47 | 43.3% | 1,394 | 1,389 | −4.0% | $1,621,622 Average list price |
| Pending Sales | 770 | 25.67 | 25.0% | 806 | 835 | −7.8% | $1,712,925 Average list price (record) |
| Closed Sales | 488 | 16.27 | 15.9% | 556 | 491 | −0.6% | $1,562,554 Average sale price |
| Expired & Cancelled | 486 | 16.20 | 15.8% | 475 | 477 | +1.9% | $1,875,450 Average list price |
| Total | 3,078 | 102.60 | 100% | 3,231 | 3,192 | Verified three ways against the tape |
My monthly tape records each category as a daily average for the month; the totals above are those averages multiplied by September's 30 days, and each one comes out to a whole number. The third quarter as a whole was better than the third quarter of 2025: pending sales 2,504 against 2,409 (+3.9%), closed sales 1,604 against 1,585 (+1.2%), failed listings 1,454 against 1,505 (−3.4%), and a sales-weighted average price of $1,598,736 against $1,538,298 (+3.9%). September was the soft month of the three: pendings ran 7.8% behind last September after running ahead in July and August.
The Last 13 Months
| Month | New listings | Pending | Closed | Exp. & canc. | Ave. sale price | Month vs previous year's same month | % change from same month last year | Ave. discount | AC | EFI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | 1,334 | 770 | 488 | 486 | $1,562,554 | +$18,731 | +1.2% | 0.48% | 0.577 | 38.7% |
| Aug 2026 | 1,394 | 806 | 556 | 475 | $1,605,491 | −$3,632 | −0.2% | 2.03% | 0.578 | 37.1% |
| Jul 2026 | 1,547 | 928 | 560 | 493 | $1,623,560 | +$152,467 | +10.4% | 0.99% | 0.600 | 34.7% |
| Jun 2026 | 1,509 | 800 | 473 | 417 | $1,454,242 | −$237,249 | −14.0% | 0.38% | 0.530 | 34.3% |
| May 2026 | 1,493 | 835 | 549 | 426 | $1,624,789 | −$7,441 | −0.5% | 0.60% | 0.559 | 33.8% |
| Apr 2026 | 1,494 | 829 | 527 | 408 | $1,707,484 | +$298,063 | +21.1% | 0.61% | 0.555 | 33.0% |
| Mar 2026 | 1,340 | 821 | 474 | 379 | $1,337,227 | −$88,234 | −6.2% | 0.73% | 0.613 | 31.6% |
| Feb 2026 | 1,124 | 688 | 357 | 319 | $1,462,747 | −$237,215 | −14.0% | 1.69% | 0.612 | 31.7% |
| Jan 2026 | 1,149 | 591 | 341 | 413 | $1,311,533 | −$318,189 | −19.5% | 2.02% | 0.514 | 41.1% |
| Dec 2025 | 661 | 547 | 464 | 540 | $1,424,403 | −$56,134 | −3.8% | 2.22% | 0.828 | 49.7% |
| Nov 2025 | 949 | 620 | 450 | 490 | $1,294,552 | −$69,522 | −5.1% | 1.99% | 0.653 | 44.1% |
| Oct 2025 | 1,322 | 802 | 559 | 453 | $1,394,328 | −$178,334 | −11.3% | 0.85% | 0.607 | 36.1% |
| Sep 2025 | 1,389 | 835 | 491 | 477 | $1,543,822 | +$11,781 | +0.8% | 1.09% | 0.601 | 36.4% |
Year-Over-Year Analysis: Do the Two YoY Columns Predict Future Prices?
Two columns in my work compare each month with the same month a year earlier: “Month vs Previous Year’s Same Month”, the dollar change in the average sale price, and “% Change from Same Month Last Year”, the same change as a percentage. Both are calculated from the average sale price of closed sales. I tested every reading since 1992 against what the six-month average price did over the following 12 and 24 months.
Finding 1: year-over-year change is a momentum gauge. Across 401 months, the percent column has a correlation of +0.33 with the price change over the following 12 months. Sorted into fifths, the strongest readings (above +17.5%) were followed by an average gain of 10.4% and a higher price 88% of the time. The weakest fifth (below −2.7%) was followed by −0.6% on average, and prices were higher only 52% of the time. The three middle fifths all produced gains of 5.6% to 6.6%. Appreciation tends to persist; declines here have tended to stall, not compound. The dollar column tells the same story less reliably (+0.22) because a $100,000 change was about 40% of the average price in 1995 and is about 6% today, so I rely on the percent column.
Finding 2: where we are now. September’s reading is +1.2% ($18,731), which falls in the second fifth (between −2.7% and +2.9%). Months in that range were followed by an average gain of 5.6% over the next year, and a higher price 78% of the time. The month-to-month readings are erratic, though. Only 3 of the last 12 were positive, and the last five read +21.1%, −0.5%, −14.0%, +10.4%, −0.2% before September. So I put more weight on the 12-month average of the column, which is −3.5% and has been negative for eight straight months. It bottomed at −4.0% in June.
Finding 3: what happened after streaks like this one. In my record there are 54 earlier months in which the 12-month average had already been negative for six months or more. Over the following year the six-month average price rose an average of 2.1% and was higher 63% of the time; over two years, 5.7% and 61%. Four earlier streaks reached an eighth month. After 1994 prices fell another 6.6% in the next year; after 2009 they rose 2.0%; after 2012, 10.2%; after 2023, 7.4%. The two streaks that lasted two years or longer (1994 to 1996 and 2008 to 2010) were deep, with the 12-month average reaching −7.6% and −27%. The two that ended within about a year (2011 to 2012 and 2023) were shallow, at −5.1% and −4.1%. This one has reached −4.0%. It looks like the shallow kind.
Finding 4: my two derivatives lead better than the YoY columns do. The 12-month Absorption Coefficient has a correlation of +0.62 with the price change one year out and +0.69 two years out. The 12-month fragility reading runs −0.55 and −0.62. Sorted into fifths, the pattern has two clear lines. When the 12-month AC was above about 0.64, prices were higher two years later in 97% to 100% of months. Today it is 0.602, in the fifth just below that line, where the two-year record was an average gain of 10.5% and a higher price 69% of the time. When the 12-month fragility reading was under about 40%, prices were higher two years later 99% of the time; above it, only 63%, and above 52%, 33%. Today it is 37.2%. Those are the two numbers I am watching: 12-month AC rising through 0.64 would confirm the floor, and 12-month fragility rising through 40% would put it in doubt.
Finding 5: the headline trap in the next four readings. Because last winter’s prices were so low, the percent column is about to print large positive numbers even on a flat-to-softer market. The table shows what the column will read if prices simply follow my central projection, which has the monthly average below September’s $1,562,554 in every one of those months.
| Month | Average sale price, same month last winter | My central projection | % change the column would print | 12-month average of the column |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 2026 | $1,394,328 | $1,508,973 | +8.2% | −1.9% |
| November 2026 | $1,294,552 | $1,518,087 | +17.3% | +0.0% |
| December 2026 | $1,424,403 | $1,500,697 | +5.4% | +0.8% |
| January 2027 | $1,311,533 | $1,476,485 | +12.6% | +3.4% |
On that path the 12-month average turns positive around the end of the year. That will be a genuine sign that the eight-month negative streak is over, but it will be the arithmetic of an easy comparison, not evidence that prices are climbing 10% a year. One thing could push the near-term numbers higher than my central path: the record $1,712,925 average list price on September’s pending sales. Over the past two years the next month’s closed average has run at about 98% of the prior month’s pending list average, with the middle half of months between 93% and 107%. Even the low end of that range is above my central path, so October and November closings are more likely to land above it than below it.
Where the Tape Points: My 24-Month Projection
My central path for the three-month average sale price is $1,597,202 today, about $1,627,128 in September 2027 (+1.9%) and about $1,709,033 in September 2028 (+7.0%), after a normal seasonal dip to roughly $1.476M to $1.518M this winter. The honest answer is the range: tested against every month since 2001, this method has missed by a median of 7% one year out and 10% two years out, and the 80% range for September 2028 runs from $1.460M to $2.210M. On the same path the 12-month AC rises from 0.602 to about 0.635 a year from now, approaching but not yet through my 0.64 line, and 12-month fragility holds near 38%, under my 40% line. That is a market that firms slowly. It is not one that takes off.
| 3-month moving average | Now | September 2027 | September 2028 | 80% range, September 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ave. Sale Price — Closed Sales | $1,597,202 | $1,627,128 | $1,709,033 | $1,460,048 to $2,210,080 |
| # New Listings (per day) | 46.4 | 45.8 | 45.8 | 32.3 to 65.2 |
| # Pending Sales (per day) | 27.2 | 26.6 | 26.6 | 16.0 to 34.4 |
| # Closed Sales (per day) | 17.4 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 10.5 to 22.4 |
| # Expired & Canceled (per day) | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 10.6 to 23.1 |
| #PS / #NL (Absorption Coefficient) | 0.585 | 0.580 | 0.581 | 0.292 to 0.884 |
| Escrow Fragility reading (#XK ÷ (#PS + #XK)) | 36.8% | 37.3% | 37.4% | 26.0% to 52.4% |
I have charted all 13 columns of the tape this way, each with its 3-month moving average and 24-month projection, in the companion projection report.
Advice for Buyers
- Do not pay the headline. From October through January you will read that South Bay prices are up 5% to 17% from a year ago. They will be, against the weakest stretch of the past two years. The averages I actually expect for those months are about $1.476M to $1.518M, below September’s $1,562,554. Make your offer from this month’s closed sales on comparable homes, not from a year-over-year percentage.
- Shop the homes that did not sell. 486 listings expired or were cancelled in September, 16.2 every day, and they had been asking an average of $1,875,450. Those owners have just learned that their price was wrong, and most of them are no longer on the public search sites. The share of listings that fail peaks every December; last December the fragility reading reached 49.7%. I can pull the expired and cancelled list for the neighborhood and price range you want.
- Expect competition on the good ones, and move decisively. The average list price of homes going under contract is at an all-time record, and the homes that closed in September sold for an average of 0.48% under list. A correctly priced home in good condition is not a negotiating opportunity in this market. Your leverage is on the homes that have sat: the ones with price reductions, long days on market, or a failed first listing.
- Choose between selection and price, because you cannot have both this quarter. Over the past ten years new listings have dropped about 7% from September to October, 27% by November and 53% by December. If you need choices, October is the last full shelf until March. If you need price, the pattern favors contracts written from Thanksgiving through December: closings in January have averaged about 4% below trend, and the average discount runs 0.7 to 0.8 points wider in December and January than the yearly norm.
Advice for Sellers
- Price to what closed, not to what is listed. The listings that failed in September were asking 20.0% more than the average home that sold and 9.5% more than the average home that went under contract. 486 sellers paid for that lesson with a wasted listing period. The new listings that are working are priced within about 4% of closed values. If your number needs a rising market to make sense, it is the wrong number for this one.
- If you own a better home and have been waiting, the buyers are here. Pending sales carried a record average list price of $1,712,925 in September, 18.7% above last year, and for three straight months buyers have been contracting above the average price of new listings. In my record that has been the case in fewer than one month in five. The demand in this market is concentrated in well-presented homes in the upper-middle of the range.
- Do not let the coming headlines set your price. When you read in December that prices are up double digits from a year ago, remember what they are being compared with. My central projection for the three-month average is +1.9% by next September. A seller who prices 10% above today’s closed sales because of a headline is likely to be one of the listings that fail in December, when the share of listings leaving the market without a buyer is the highest of the year.
- Decide now between the fourth quarter and spring, and know the trade. Listing in November or December means far fewer competitors: my Absorption Coefficient has a ten-year norm of 0.81 in November and 0.95 in December, against 0.63 in September, because new listings fall faster than buyers do. It also means the widest discounts and the highest failure rate of the year, so the price has to be right on day one. Waiting for spring has its own arithmetic: May and June closings have averaged 3% to 4% above trend against 1% to 2% below in October and November, but you will share the market with about a third more new listings than in November and twice as many as in December, and you will carry the home through winter to get there. If you plan to sell within a year, let me run both scenarios for your property.
Strategic Opportunities
- Buyers: the holiday contract window. Three seasonal patterns line up between Thanksgiving and New Year’s. January closings are the lowest-priced of the year, discounts are at their widest, and the share of listings failing is at its peak (a ten-year December norm of 38.7%, and 49.7% last December). The cost is selection: about half as many new listings as in September. Buyers who have done their homework by mid-November, with financing approved and a short list of target streets, are the ones who can use that window.
- Sellers already on the market: re-price before Thanksgiving, not after New Year’s. A listing that reaches November without an offer is at risk of joining the December failures. The gap between what fails and what sells is measurable, about 9% to 20% in September. One decisive adjustment in October or early November reaches the buyers who are still active. The same adjustment in January reaches them with a stale listing history attached.
- Move-up owners: sell tight, buy from the stale pool. In a flat market what matters is the spread between the home you sell and the home you buy. Right now a correctly priced home sells within about half a percent of its list price, while the pool of failed listings, averaging $1,875,450, is where the negotiating room is. Selling a well-priced home and buying one that has already failed at a higher price is the trade this tape favors.
- Everyone: set your trigger. I am watching two lines. If my 12-month Absorption Coefficient rises from 0.602 through 0.64, history says the floor is confirmed and the buyer’s window is closing. If 12-month fragility rises from 37.2% through 40%, sellers should cut faster and buyers gain leverage. Tell me which side you are on and I will call you the month either line is crossed.
Why I Could Be Wrong
- One sale moved September’s average. In my daily record, 814 Pacific Avenue in Manhattan Beach closed on September 22 at $25,600,000, the largest single closing I have logged in that series. Without that one sale, September’s average would be about $1,513,000, roughly 2.0% below last September and not 1.2% above it. An average of 488 sales is sensitive to which homes happen to close. The record pending price is sturdier: it stands even without that property’s contract.
- The correlations are cycle-level. They come mostly from two long downturns, the early 1990s and 2006 to 2011. Inside the last 15 years alone, the relationship between my 12-month AC and the price two years later actually runs the other way (−0.58), because the very strong absorption of 2020 and 2021 was followed by flat prices. I use these readings to tell me what kind of market we are in, and this one does not look like 1991 or 2007. I do not use them to call a number.
- My projection misses by 7% to 10%. That is its tested record. A two-year range of $1.460M to $2.210M is wide because the honest range is wide.
- Rising fragility may be the early warning and not just the season. Six straight increases have taken the gap over the seasonal norm from 3.4 points to 8.6. If October, November and December come in above last year’s 36%, 44% and 50%, the 12-month reading will move toward 40%, and I will change my view.
- The tape cannot see what is outside it. Mortgage rates, insurance costs, tax changes and employment all move this market, and none of them is a column in my record.
Price level, f(x): average sale price $1,562,554 (+1.2% year over year, −2.7% month over month). Three-month average $1,597,202, 0.4% under the record $1,603,407 of February 2025. Six-month average (my 180-day context) $1,596,353, +2.4% against a year ago and positive for a second month after −1.3% in July. Twelve-month average $1,483,576, 3.9% below its September 2025 peak of $1,544,133.
First derivative, Absorption Coefficient: 770 ÷ 1,334 = 0.577 (39th percentile of 425 months; long-run median 0.650). Twelve-month average 0.602. Gap to the ten-year same-month norm: −0.18 in January, −0.16 in June, −0.06 in September. Third quarter 2,504 ÷ 4,275 = 0.586 against 0.555 a year ago. Year to date 7,068 ÷ 12,384 = 0.571 against 0.548.
Second derivative, Escrow Fragility: 486 ÷ (770 + 486) = 38.7% (57th percentile; long-run median 36.2%). Six consecutive increases: 31.6%, 33.0%, 33.8%, 34.3%, 34.7%, 37.1%, 38.7%. Twelve-month average 37.2%. Gap over the ten-year same-month norm: +3.4 points in February, +8.6 in September. Third quarter 36.7% against 38.5% a year ago; year to date 35.1% against 36.9%.
Cross-check with my Daily Activity series: the 30 daily sessions of September pooled to 750 escrows against 670 new listings, a daily AC of 1.119 (the lowest of the three third-quarter months) and a daily EFI of 17.76% (the best of the three). The daily series measures escrows that fall out; the monthly tape measures listings that never reach escrow. Together they say the contracts being written are holding, and the failures are happening at the asking price, before a contract exists.
Year to date, January through September: new listings 12,384 against 12,448 in 2025 (−0.5%); pending sales 7,068 against 6,826 (+3.5%); closed sales 4,325 against 4,382 (−1.3%); expired and cancelled 3,816 against 3,991 (−4.4%); sales-weighted average price $1,536,962 against $1,560,049 (−1.5%).
Reading: level near its high, first derivative below normal and converging, second derivative above normal and diverging. The projection is consistent with that: every ratio I project is computed from the projected counts, the 12-month AC approaches 0.64 without crossing it in the next year, 12-month fragility stays under 40%, and the three-month price average rises +1.9% in a year and +7.0% in two. What would confirm the floor: November and December Absorption Coefficients above last year’s 0.65 and 0.83, with fragility below last year’s 44% and 50%.
George Fotion · Call Realty · California DRE# 00785373
(424) 722-9136 · george.fotion@homeispalosverdes.com
PalosVerdesHomesBest.com · SearchHomesInPrivate.com · calendly.com/george-fotion
Source: my monthly tape of CRMLS activity for the Palos Verdes Peninsula and South Bay, 425 consecutive months from May 1991 through September 2026, read three ways (two spreadsheet readers and the raw file) with every cell in agreement. The tape has no Status column; its four activity categories are the count columns (new listings, expired and cancelled, pending sales, closed sales), recorded as daily averages for each month. Seven month labels in the tape carry a day other than the first of the month; every month appears exactly once and I read each by its month. The two year-over-year columns are calculated from the average sale price of closed sales. Projections are statistical estimates, not guarantees, and nothing here is an appraisal of any property. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
Palos Verdes Homes & South Bay Real Estate: 3-Month Moving Averages and 24-Month Projections for All 13 Columns of My Monthly Tape
How to read these charts
Every chart below puts time on the horizontal axis. The thin line is the monthly figure exactly as it appears in my tape. The heavy blue line is its 3-month moving average. The dashed red line is my projection of that 3-month average for the next 24 months, through September 2028, and the shaded area is the range that would have contained the actual result 80% of the time when I run the same method from every month since 2001 and compare it with what actually happened. The gold line marks September 2026. Under each chart is the full record back to May 1991.
I would rather show you an honest range than a confident single number. On the average sale price, this method has been off by a median of 7% one year out and 10% two years out. The central path is where I would place an even-money bet; the shaded range is where I would plan.
Summary of all 13 projections
| Column | Sep 2026 (month) | 3-mo MA now | 3-mo MA Sep 2027 | 3-mo MA Sep 2028 | 24-mo change | 80% range, Sep 2028 | Typical miss at 24 mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # New Listings (per day) | 44.5 | 46.4 | 45.8 | 45.8 | −1.5% | 32.3 to 65.2 | ±17% |
| Ave. List $ — New Listings | $1,621,622 | $1,593,796 | $1,645,277 | $1,717,855 | +7.8% | $1,379,654 to $2,202,101 | ±12% |
| # Expired & Canceled (per day) | 16.2 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.8 | +0.3% | 10.6 to 23.1 | ±14% |
| Ave. List $ — Expired & Canceled | $1,875,450 | $1,708,220 | $1,761,795 | $1,838,874 | +7.6% | $1,422,297 to $2,323,501 | ±14% |
| # Pending Sales (per day) | 25.7 | 27.2 | 26.6 | 26.6 | −2.3% | 16.0 to 34.4 | ±16% |
| Ave. List $ — Pending Sales | $1,712,925 | $1,650,369 | $1,711,051 | $1,803,793 | +9.3% | $1,534,378 to $2,361,848 | ±8% |
| # Closed Sales (per day) | 16.3 | 17.4 | 17.2 | 17.2 | −1.0% | 10.5 to 22.4 | ±17% |
| Ave. Sale Price — Closed Sales | $1,562,554 | $1,597,202 | $1,627,128 | $1,709,033 | +7.0% | $1,460,048 to $2,210,080 | ±10% |
| Ave. % Discount | 0.48% | 1.17% | 0.91% | 0.90% | −0.26 pts | −1.19% to 3.07% | ±1.02 pts |
| #PS / #NL (Absorption Coefficient) | 0.577 | 0.585 | 0.580 | 0.581 | −0.8% | 0.292 to 0.884 | ±22% |
| #CS / #PS | 0.634 | 0.642 | 0.649 | 0.649 | +1.0% | 0.542 to 0.778 | ±8% |
| (#CS + #PS) / #XK | 2.59 | 2.82 | 2.77 | 2.77 | −2.0% | 1.48 to 4.58 | ±23% |
| Supply/Demand Balance (#PS − #NL) | −18.8 | −19.2 | −19.2 | −19.2 | +0.1 | −51.2 to 5.7 | ±8.4 |
1. # New Listings (per day)
Supply. I project the 3-month average essentially flat near 46 a day, with the normal winter trough (about 21 a day in December) and a spring rebuild. No supply surge is in the numbers.
2. Ave. List $ — New Listings
What sellers are asking when they come to market. Asking prices drift up with the long-run trend, about 8% over two years on the central path.
3. # Expired & Canceled (per day)
Listings that left the market without a buyer. Flat near 16 a day on the central path; the count runs above its yearly average from July through December and peaks in August.
4. Ave. List $ — Expired & Canceled
The price of what failed. Its 3-month average is the highest price line on this page, and over the past ten years it has typically run about 20% above the list price of what went pending. The homes that fail are, on average, the ones asking the most.
5. # Pending Sales (per day)
Demand. Flat near 27 a day on the 3-month average, dipping to about 18 a day in December and January before the spring contracts arrive.
6. Ave. List $ — Pending Sales
The price of what buyers are actually contracting on. September set the all-time record at $1,712,925; this is the line with the strongest current trend on the page.
7. # Closed Sales (per day)
Completed transactions. Flat near 17 a day on the 3-month average, with the usual January low near 11 a day.
8. Ave. Sale Price — Closed Sales
The line most people mean when they say “prices.” The central path dips with the season to about $1.50 million this winter, returns to about $1.63 million by next September and reaches about $1.71 million by September 2028.
9. Ave. % Discount
How far below list the average sale closes. It widens every winter and tightens every spring; I project it staying near 1%, inside its recent range.
10. #PS / #NL (Absorption Coefficient)
My Absorption Coefficient on the monthly tape. Because I derive it from the pending and new-listing projections above, it is arithmetically consistent with them: flat near 0.58 on the 3-month average, with the seasonal high near 0.85 in December.
11. #CS / #PS
Closings per pending: how much of the pipeline is completing. Flat near 0.65.
12. (#CS + #PS) / #XK
Successes per failure. It has slipped from 3.4 in March to 2.6 in September; I project it holding near 2.8 on the 3-month average. A 3-month average below 2.0 would be a warning; it has not been there since March 2011.
13. Supply/Demand Balance (#PS − #NL)
Pending sales minus new listings, per day. Negative is normal on this tape (more homes are listed than sell); the closer to zero, the tighter the market. December has been the tightest month in 28 of the last 34 years.
Bonus: my monthly Escrow Fragility reading
This is not a column in the tape; I derive it from two that are: expired and cancelled listings divided by the sum of those and pending sales. It is the share of listings leaving the market without a buyer. September was 38.7%, the sixth straight monthly rise. My central path holds the 3-month average near 37% with the usual December peak near 47%. The level I am watching is 40% on the 12-month average, which stands at 37.2% today.
Seasonality. For each column I measure the typical seasonal pattern from the last ten years (each month against its centered 12-month average) and remove it before estimating level and trend, then put it back into the projection. That is why the red lines rise and fall with the calendar.
Counts and discount. For new listings, expired and cancelled, pending sales, closed sales and the discount, I use a damped-trend model: the current level plus the current trend, with the trend fading out. In my backtest it was the most accurate of the methods I tried for pending and closed sales and within a point or two of the best for the others.
Prices. For the four price columns I start from the current level and current trend and let the trend converge exponentially toward the long-run regression slope of my own 425-month record (about 5.6% a year for the average sale price). In my backtest that cut the two-year error on the average sale price from about 16% to about 10%.
Ratios. I do not project the four ratio columns separately. I project the counts and compute #PS/#NL, #CS/#PS, (#CS+#PS)/#XK and the Supply/Demand Balance from them, month by month, so every ratio chart agrees arithmetically with the count charts. Last month I disclosed that my separately projected absorption and price paths could not both be right; this construction removes that problem.
Guardrails. Every projected year-over-year change in each 3-month average is checked against the largest rise and the largest fall that column has ever recorded in my own history. None of the projections comes close to those limits.
What these charts are not. They extend the patterns already in my tape. They know nothing about mortgage rates, tax law, employment or insurance, and they cannot see a turning point before the tape does. The average price in any one month also moves with which homes happen to close. Treat the central path as a baseline and the range as the honest answer.
George Fotion · Call Realty · California DRE# 00785373
(424) 722-9136 · george.fotion@homeispalosverdes.com
PalosVerdesHomesBest.com · SearchHomesInPrivate.com · calendly.com/george-fotion
Source: my monthly tape of CRMLS activity for the Palos Verdes Peninsula and South Bay, 425 months from May 1991 through September 2026. Count columns are daily averages for each month. Projections are statistical estimates, not guarantees, and are not an appraisal of any property. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
Absorption Coefficient & Escrow Fragility Index: September 2026 on the Monthly Tape, with Every Daily Activity Session to Date
Monthly tape: 425 months, May 1991 to September 2026
0.577 September 2026 AC 770 pending sales ÷ 1,334 new listings. August 0.578; September 2025 0.601 | 38.7% September 2026 EFI 486 expired and cancelled ÷ (770 + 486). Sixth straight monthly rise; highest September since 2011 | 0.602 12-month AC Watch line 0.64. Above it, prices were higher two years later in 97% to 100% of months | 37.2% 12-month EFI Watch line 40%. Above it, the two-year record weakens sharply |
Thin lines are the monthly readings; heavy lines are the 12-month averages. AC (blue, left axis 0 to 1.8) is pending sales ÷ new listings; the dashed blue line is my 0.64 watch level. EFI (amber, right axis 0 to 95%, set from the series high of 83.7%) is expired and cancelled listings ÷ (pending sales + expired and cancelled); the dashed amber line is my 40% watch level. Both watch levels come from sorting all 425 months by their 12-month averages and measuring what prices did over the following two years. Hover any point for its values.
September 2026: AC 0.577, flat against August and 0.06 below the ten-year September norm of 0.633, a gap that has narrowed from 0.18 in January. EFI 38.7%, up for the sixth month in a row and 8.6 points above the ten-year September norm of 30.1%, a gap that has widened from 3.4 points in February. The first derivative is converging toward normal; the second is moving away from it.
Daily Activity: all 129 sessions, March 29 to September 30, 2026
1.300 Today, Session 129 AC 26 in escrow ÷ 20 new listings, Wednesday September 30 | 7.14% Today, Session 129 EFI 2 back on market ÷ (26 + 2). Lowest non-zero reading of the series | 1.575 Cumulative AC, S1–129 median 1.333 | 20.95% Cumulative EFI, S1–129 median 20.51% |
Dashed lines: AC 1.0 (blue) and EFI 25% (amber), my daily thresholds. Sessions 58 (3.818), 99 (20.000) and 127 (4.333) are drawn at the 3.5 cap. Sessions 36 and 37 are reconstructed estimates. Pooled by month: July 927 in escrow vs 760 new listings, AC 1.220 / EFI 20.97%; August 804 vs 650, 1.237 / 22.62%; September 750 vs 670, 1.119 / 17.76%; third quarter 2,481 vs 2,080, 1.193 / 20.58%.
Why the two scales differ, and what they say together
The two series count different things, so each should be read against its own history and not against the other. My Daily Activity series counts status changes on the day they post: every move into escrow against every new listing, and every escrow that comes back on the market. Its balance point is 1.0 for AC and its caution line is 25% for EFI. My monthly tape counts pending sales against a much larger new-listing total, and its fragility reading counts listings that expired or were cancelled, not escrows that fell out. Its long-run median is 0.65 for AC and 36% for EFI.
Read together, September says this: the contracts that were written held (daily EFI 17.76%, the best month of the quarter), but fewer contracts were written per listing (daily AC 1.119, the lowest of the quarter; monthly AC 0.577), and more listings left the market without ever getting one (monthly EFI 38.7%, up six months running). The weakness is at the asking price, before the contract, not in the escrows.
Monthly data table, last 24 months (newest first)
| Month | New Listings | Pending Sales | Expired & Cancelled | AC | EFI | 12-mo AC | 12-mo EFI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | 1,334 | 770 | 486 | 0.577 | 38.7% | 0.602 | 37.2% |
| Aug 2026 | 1,394 | 806 | 475 | 0.578 | 37.1% | 0.604 | 37.0% |
| Jul 2026 | 1,547 | 928 | 493 | 0.600 | 34.7% | 0.601 | 37.3% |
| Jun 2026 | 1,509 | 800 | 417 | 0.530 | 34.3% | 0.595 | 37.6% |
| May 2026 | 1,493 | 835 | 426 | 0.559 | 33.8% | 0.592 | 37.7% |
| Apr 2026 | 1,494 | 829 | 408 | 0.555 | 33.0% | 0.589 | 37.6% |
| Mar 2026 | 1,340 | 821 | 379 | 0.613 | 31.6% | 0.588 | 37.9% |
| Feb 2026 | 1,124 | 688 | 319 | 0.612 | 31.7% | 0.586 | 38.2% |
| Jan 2026 | 1,149 | 591 | 413 | 0.514 | 41.1% | 0.589 | 38.3% |
| Dec 2025 | 661 | 547 | 540 | 0.828 | 49.7% | 0.588 | 38.5% |
| Nov 2025 | 949 | 620 | 490 | 0.653 | 44.1% | 0.592 | 38.1% |
| Oct 2025 | 1,322 | 802 | 453 | 0.607 | 36.1% | 0.601 | 37.6% |
| Sep 2025 | 1,389 | 835 | 477 | 0.601 | 36.4% | 0.601 | 37.4% |
| Aug 2025 | 1,425 | 774 | 554 | 0.543 | 41.7% | 0.598 | 37.2% |
| Jul 2025 | 1,530 | 800 | 474 | 0.523 | 37.2% | 0.603 | 36.7% |
| Jun 2025 | 1,503 | 743 | 414 | 0.494 | 35.8% | 0.608 | 36.4% |
| May 2025 | 1,594 | 844 | 424 | 0.529 | 33.4% | 0.620 | 36.0% |
| Apr 2025 | 1,474 | 786 | 442 | 0.533 | 36.0% | 0.632 | 35.6% |
| Mar 2025 | 1,283 | 762 | 420 | 0.594 | 35.5% | 0.642 | 35.0% |
| Feb 2025 | 1,077 | 700 | 340 | 0.650 | 32.7% | 0.664 | 34.1% |
| Jan 2025 | 1,173 | 582 | 446 | 0.496 | 43.4% | 0.672 | 33.8% |
| Dec 2024 | 611 | 534 | 430 | 0.874 | 44.6% | 0.689 | 33.3% |
| Nov 2024 | 919 | 704 | 434 | 0.766 | 38.1% | 0.696 | 32.8% |
| Oct 2024 | 1,328 | 811 | 423 | 0.611 | 34.3% | 0.688 | 32.7% |
Counts are the month totals implied by my tape (daily average × days in the month). George Fotion, Call Realty, California DRE# 00785373 · (424) 722-9136 · george.fotion@homeispalosverdes.com · PalosVerdesHomesBest.com · SearchHomesInPrivate.com · calendly.com/george-fotion
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George Fotion • Call Realty • DRE# 00785373 • (424) 722-9136
| Column | Aug 2026 (3-mo MA) | Aug 2028 Projection | 24-Mo Δ | Guardrail |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Listings (daily avg) | 48.4 | 58.4 | +20.6% | capped at historical extreme |
| Average List Price — New Listings | $1,613,179 | $1,673,745 | +3.8% | capped at historical extreme |
| Expired & Canceled (daily avg) | 15.0 | 17.0 | +13.3% | within rails |
| Average List Price — Expired & Canceled | $1,603,864 | $1,663,487 | +3.7% | capped at historical extreme |
| Pending Sales (daily avg) | 27.5 | 30.1 | +9.2% | capped at historical extreme |
| Average List Price — Pending Sales | $1,597,529 | $1,751,327 | +9.6% | capped at historical extreme |
| Closed Sales (daily avg) | 17.3 | 19.2 | +11.1% | within rails |
| Average Sale Price — Closed Sales | $1,561,098 | $1,714,683 | +9.8% | within rails |
| Average % Discount (List vs Sale) | 1.13% | 1.16% | +2.2% | capped at historical extreme |
| Absorption Coefficient #PS / #NL | 0.569 | 0.454 | -20.2% | capped at historical extreme |
| Conversion Ratio #CS / #PS | 0.628 | 0.635 | +1.0% | capped at historical extreme |
| Success-per-Failure Ratio (#CS+#PS) / #XK | 2.979 | 2.804 | -5.9% | within rails |
| Supply / Demand Balance | -20.9 | -28.3 | -35.6% | within rails |
Model per column: 3-month moving average → recent slope (OLS, last 36 months) converging exponentially toward the long-run slope (OLS, last 120 months) → month-of-year seasonal factors from the last 10 years → guardrails clipping the path to each column’s own historical extreme 24-month moves. Columns flagged “capped at historical extreme” had raw extrapolations exceeding anything the series has done in 424 months — the rail, not the raw trend, governs.
The one divergence to respect: each column is projected independently, and the mechanics disagree in one place — the sale-price MA projects +9.8% by Aug 2028 (≈+4.8%/yr, consistent with the WEEKTICK model’s +4–8% by mid-2027) while the Absorption Coefficient path drifts down toward 0.45 as projected new listings (+20.6%, rail-capped) outgrow pendings (+9.2%). Both cannot be fully right: sustained sub-0.50 absorption has historically preceded flat, not +5%/yr, pricing. Read the price projection as the upper path, conditional on absorption stabilizing above ~0.55 — which is exactly what the late-October/November convergence signal will confirm or deny. If AC follows its projected path instead, expect the flat-floor scenario from the quintile analysis (≈0 to +2%/yr).
Scale note: the Supply/Demand Balance “−35.6%” is a percentage of a negative level (−20.9 → −28.3 daily deficit) — the meaningful read is a widening supply shortfall of about 7 events/day, well inside historical rails, and structurally supportive of the price floor.
PalosVerdesHomesBest.com • SearchHomesInPrivate.com • calendly.com/george-fotion
