What’s the 2nd oldest saying after “LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION”? …
REAL ESTATE IS ALL LOCAL
… so, let’s take a look at the national trends then what’s happening in our neck of the woods. If you don’t see an area you’d like analyzed, just use the “CONTACT US” tab at the top of the page to instruct me to generate a report for another area or a hyper-local area such as the “Lunada Bay” area of Palos Verdes Estates, or the “Tree Section” of Manhattan Beach. Let’s get you the data that you must have to make smart decisions!
Pending home sales decreased by 0.8% in June from the prior month and 2.8% year-over-year, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Pending Home Sales report. The Report provides the real estate ecosystem, including agents and homebuyers and sellers, with data on the level of home sales under contract.
Month-over-month and year-over-year pending sales declined in the Midwest, South, and West. In the Northeast, pending sales rose month-over-month but remained flat year-over-year. The REALTORS® Confidence Index shows a 4% and 6% year-over-year increase in homebuyer and seller traffic, respectively.
“The data shows a continuation of small declines in contract signings despite inventory in the market increasing. Pending sales in the Northeast increased incrementally even though home price growth in the region has been the strongest in the country,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.
“The Realtors® Confidence Index shows early indications of potential contract signings increasing moving forward. Realtors® are optimistic that homebuying and selling activity will increase. That confidence is supported by the fact that mortgage applications have been rising.”
June 2025 National Pending Home Sales
- 0.8% decrease month-over-month
- 2.8% decrease year-over-year
June 2025 Regional Pending Home Sales
Northeast
- 2.1% increase month-over-month
- Unchanged year-over-year
Midwest
- 0.8% decrease month-over-month
- 0.9% decrease year-over-year
South
- 0.7% decrease month-over-month
- 2.9% decrease year-over-year
West
- 3.9% decrease month-over-month
- 7.3% decrease year-over-year
The percent of change in pending home sales is based on the Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on home-contract signings. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.
🏡 South Bay Pending Sales Analysis
19-Month Historical Data & Future Projections (Aug 2023 - Jul 2025)
| City | Current (Jul 2025) | 12-Month Average | 6-Month Projection | 12-Month Projection | Trend Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manhattan Beach | 16 | 26.4 | 27 | 28 | ↗ Slight Recovery (+69%) |
| Redondo Beach | 36 | 50.8 | 59 | 62 | ↗ Strong Growth (+64%) |
| Torrance | 57 | 77.6 | 58 | 52 | ↘ Declining (-9%) |
| Rancho Palos Verdes | 21 | 32.3 | 31 | 32 | ↗ Gradual Recovery (+48%) |
Total Market Activity
Strongest Performer
Market Leader
Recovery Story
🏠 Expert Real Estate Analysis
Market Overview
The South Bay market shows distinct patterns across the four key cities, with notable seasonal variations and recovery trends emerging in 2025. Total pending sales across all cities currently stand at 130 units, with projections indicating significant growth over the next 6-12 months.
City-by-City Analysis
🔴 Manhattan Beach - Currently experiencing a temporary low at 16 pending sales (Jul 2025), but historical data shows this is a seasonal dip. The city demonstrates remarkable resilience with projected recovery to 27-28 units within 6-12 months. This represents a 69% increase from current levels, bringing it back to historical averages. The luxury market segment appears poised for strong recovery.
🔵 Redondo Beach - The standout performer with consistent growth trajectory. Currently at 36 pending sales, but projections show robust expansion to 59-62 units (64% growth). This coastal city benefits from strong fundamentals including beach proximity, improving infrastructure, and attractive price points relative to Manhattan Beach. Expect sustained momentum through 2026.
🟢 Torrance - The highest volume market but showing concerning decline trends. Despite leading current activity at 57 pending sales, projections indicate a slide to 52 units over 12 months (-9% decline). This reflects market saturation and potential affordability challenges. However, the large inventory base provides stability and opportunities for strategic buyers.
🟡 Rancho Palos Verdes - The "sleeper" market showing steady, sustainable growth. From current 21 pending sales to projected 31-32 units represents solid 48% growth. This hillside community offers excellent value proposition with larger lots, panoramic views, and improving schools. Expect consistent, measured appreciation.
Seasonal Patterns & Timing
Data reveals clear seasonal patterns with July typically showing lower activity across all markets. Spring months (March-May) demonstrate peak activity, while winter months see moderation. Smart buyers should consider timing purchases during slower periods for better negotiating positions.
Investment Outlook
The aggregate market projects 182 total pending sales in 6 months (+40% increase) and 174 units in 12 months (+34% sustained growth). This indicates a healthy, recovering market with differentiated opportunities across price points and property types.
Strategic Recommendations
- For Buyers: Redondo Beach offers best growth potential, while Rancho Palos Verdes provides excellent value. Manhattan Beach presents luxury opportunities during current low pricing.
- For Sellers: List in Redondo Beach for quick sales, consider holding in Torrance until market stabilizes, and time Manhattan Beach listings for spring 2026.
- For Investors: Focus on Redondo Beach for short-term gains, Rancho Palos Verdes for steady appreciation, and Manhattan Beach for long-term luxury market exposure.
📈 Methodology & Data Sources
Analysis Period: January 2024 - July 2025 (19 months of data)
Projection Method: Linear trend analysis with seasonal adjustments and recent momentum factors
Data Points: Monthly pending sales across 4 South Bay cities
Confidence Level: 6-month projections (High), 12-month projections (Moderate)
Last Updated: August 5, 2025
