Palos Verdes Homes & South Bay Real Estate Daily Activity — Monday, October 5, 2026

Executive Summary

Yesterday I wrote that my base case for Monday was the Monday median, an absorption reading near 1.59, and I noted that the two earlier Mondays that followed a Sunday under 1.0 had both printed above 2.5. Monday did not follow that script, and I want to say so plainly. Across 27 CRMLS events, 5 homes went into escrow against 7 new listings — an Absorption Coefficient of 0.714, tied with July 13 for the 14th-lowest of my 134 sessions and the second straight session under 1.0. Five is the smallest escrow count I have recorded in this series; the previous low was seven. Two homes came back on the market against those five, an Escrow Fragility Index of 28.57% — the 14th-highest of 134 and the first reading at or above my 25% line in eight sessions. Both thresholds failed on the same day. Under my own rule that is a dual-threshold breach, the 15th of the series and the first since September 17. It ends a run of 17 clean sessions.

Now the weight I put on it. This is the smallest sample on which a breach has ever registered: 12 escrows and new listings combined. The next-smallest breach days had 18 and 20. One row decides the reading. Of the two Back on Market rows, one is a Hold release — 1614 The Strand in Hermosa Beach, returned to Active at $6,999,000 at 581 days on this listing — and one is a genuine fall-out, a one-bedroom condo at 3601 W Hidden Lane #309 in Rolling Hills Estates, back at $464,000 after 90 days. On the pure basis, fragility is 1 ÷ 6, 16.67%, which is under my line. The count can also be read the other way: a San Pedro trust sale at 456 W 40th Street left escrow for Hold instead of returning to Active. I count it Off Market per Status; counted as a failed escrow, the reading would be 37.5%. And three of the five escrow rows are Under Contract→Pending moves — homes already under contract that cleared their contingencies. First-time contracts were two. I log the breach because the rule is mechanical and I do not waive it on the days it is inconvenient. I also do not treat twelve rows as a verdict on October. The last seven sessions pool to 172 escrows against 133 new listings, 1.293, and my 180-day reading is 1.178 against 1.179 yesterday.

The escrow book is $15,407,000 on five rows, and $12,500,000 of it is one house. 225 S Meadows in Manhattan Beach — a 2026 build, six bedrooms, 6,006 square feet on a 14,000-square-foot lot — moved from Coming Soon straight to Pending with zero days on the market, about $2,081 per foot. It was never an active listing. That is the same path 814 Pacific Avenue took in September: Coming Soon to under contract on September 10, closed at $25,600,000 on September 22. On the smallest escrow day of my series, the largest row is an eight-figure sale that the open market never saw. The other four: 24005 Fulmar Avenue in Torrance cleared to Pending at $1,275,000 after 117 days, about $708 per foot; a 2025-build condo at 927 Deep Valley Drive #308 in Rolling Hills Estates went under contract at $998,000 after 49 days, about $798 per foot; a condo at 1235 E Carson #5 in Carson cleared to Pending at $450,000; and a manufactured home at 26200 Frampton #32 in Harbor City cleared to Pending at $184,000 after 114 days.

Six homes closed for $6,913,000, median $1,070,000 — every one of them between $930,000 and $1,550,000. A duplex at 2020 Voorhees in Redondo Beach closed at $1,550,000, Active→Sold at zero days, about $994 per foot. 18815 Pepperdine in Carson closed at $1,300,000 in 11 days. A 2025-build townhome at 4102 Spencer in Torrance closed at $1,100,000 after 63 days, about $692 per foot. Four of the six closed after 11 days or fewer on the market. Seven new listings total $7,459,990, median $890,000, and six of the seven are under $1 million. The exception is 6333 Via Colinita in Rancho Palos Verdes at $2,788,000, about $791 per foot. It arrived on the same day that 43 Avenida Corona, in the same MLS area, cut its price by $375,000 — 11.8% — to $2,800,000 at 362 days on this listing and 515 cumulative. I flagged Avenida Corona in my April 9 report, when it came down $75,000 to $3,175,000. Today’s cut starts from that same number, six months later. Two Rancho Palos Verdes homes, built three years apart, now sit $12,000 apart in price: one at about $791 per foot on day one, the other at about $619 per foot on day 362.

Four listings left the market for $6,990,000: a triplex at 1310 Loma Drive in Hermosa Beach went to Hold at $3,700,000 after 36 days; 1768 Vallecito in San Pedro was withdrawn at $1,310,000 after 136 days; the 40th Street trust sale went from under contract to Hold at $1,295,000; and 2505 W 116th Street in Hawthorne, which carries a notice-of-default code, went to Hold at $685,000 six days in. One more item from yesterday’s file: the trust sale at 20828 Brighton in Torrance, which I logged as expiring on Sunday at $899,900 after 121 days, was relisted today at $899,990 — ninety dollars higher. There were three price reductions, all genuine, with a median of −7.14%. The export carries no original list prices on the closed rows, so I am not publishing a list-to-close comparison for this session.

Status Breakdown

Closed Sales Detail — 6 Transactions, $6,913,000

Reading notes: no closing above $1,550,000 and none below $930,000 — this is the middle of the South Bay market, and it is moving. The duplex at 2020 Voorhees in Redondo Beach (1949, 1,560 square feet on a 7,508-square-foot lot) closed at $1,550,000, about $994 per foot of building and about $206 per foot of land; it shows Active→Sold at zero days under a listing number from this week, which reads as a sale arranged before the home reached the open market. 18815 Pepperdine in Carson (1992, 4 bed, 2,426 square feet) closed at $1,300,000 in 11 days, about $536 per foot. The townhome at 4102 Spencer in Torrance (2025 build, 3 bed, 1,590 square feet) closed at $1,100,000 after 63 days, about $692 per foot. The duplex at 3362 W 134th Street in Hawthorne (1940, 3,156 square feet) closed at $1,040,000 after 127 days, about $330 per foot. 1913 240th Street in Lomita (1962, 3 bed, 1,555 square feet) closed at $993,000 in 11 days, about $639 per foot, and 4349 S Victoria in area 103 (1934, 1,923 square feet on 8,642) closed at $930,000 in six days. Three of the six days-on-market cells were stored by Excel as dates; I decoded them back and note that in the disclosure below.

New Listings Detail — 7 Listings, $7,459,990

Reading notes: seven rows, seven properties, no duplicates. 6333 Via Colinita in Rancho Palos Verdes (2007, 4 bed, 3,526 square feet on 9,398) arrived at $2,788,000, about $791 per foot — the only Peninsula listing and the only one above $1 million. 1669 Orchid Way in Gardena (2010, 4 bed, 2,148 square feet) arrived at $985,000, about $459 per foot; the 77,659-square-foot lot figure in the export reads as a shared community parcel, not a private lot. 20828 Brighton in Torrance (1955, 3 bed, 1,290 square feet on 6,752) is a trust sale at $899,990, about $698 per foot, showing one day on this listing and 122 cumulative: it expired yesterday at $899,900. 8721 Crenshaw Boulevard in Inglewood (1937, 3 bed, 1,679 square feet) arrived at $890,000 with one day on this listing and 145 cumulative, so it too is a relist. Two duplexes arrived: 1422 E Mauretania Street in area 195 (1966, 1,632 square feet) at $839,000, about $514 per foot, and 12808 Shoup Avenue in Hawthorne (1948, 1,824 square feet) at $799,000, about $438 per foot. Space #32 at 21711 Vera Street in Carson arrived at $259,000 (1973, 1,440 square feet; no sub-type in the export — the price, the space number and the public-record source read like a manufactured home).

In Escrow — $15,407,000 Book, 5 Rows

Reading notes: 225 S Meadows, Manhattan Beach (2026, 6 bed, 8 bath, 6,006 square feet on a 14,000-square-foot lot) is coded C→P at $12,500,000 with 0/0 days — Coming Soon directly to Pending — about $2,081 per foot of house and about $893 per foot of land with a new home on it. 24005 Fulmar Avenue, Torrance (1955, 3 bed, 1,801 square feet on 6,167) moved Under Contract→Pending at $1,275,000 at 117 days, about $708 per foot. 927 Deep Valley Drive #308, Rolling Hills Estates (2025 build, 2 bed, 1,251 square feet) went Active→Under Contract at $998,000 at 49 days on this listing and 63 cumulative, about $798 per foot; it is the only row today that went from the open market into a first contract. 1235 E Carson #5 in Carson (1996, 2 bed, 1,115 square feet) cleared to Pending at $450,000, about $404 per foot. 26200 Frampton #32 in Harbor City (1975, 1,440 square feet) cleared to Pending at $184,000 after 114 days. Transition mix: 1 Coming Soon→Pending, 1 Active→Under Contract, 3 Under Contract→Pending.

Back on Market — 2 Rows, $7,463,000

Reading notes: two rows, $7,463,000, and 93.8% of the dollars are one Hold release. 1614 The Strand in Hermosa Beach (1913, 4 bed, 1,716 square feet on a 2,398-square-foot lot) returned to Active at $6,999,000, about $4,079 per foot of house — a price that is in the sand under it. It shows 581 days on this listing and 687 cumulative. I have logged this address before: it came off Hold at the same $6,999,000 on September 5 and went back on Hold on September 6. The genuine fall-out is a one-bedroom condo at 3601 W Hidden Lane #309 in Rolling Hills Estates (1973, 659 square feet), back at $464,000 after 90 days, about $704 per foot. Yesterday a one-bedroom at 3605 W Hidden Lane #303, in the same complex, cut its price to $469,999. Pure-basis fragility is 1 ÷ 6 = 16.67%.

Off Market — 4 Rows, $6,990,000

Reading notes: four exits, $6,990,000, and three of the four are moves to Hold. There were no expirations and no cancellations. The triplex at 1310 Loma Drive in Hermosa Beach (1962, 2,682 square feet on 4,242) went to Hold at $3,700,000 after 36 days, about $1,380 per foot. 1768 Vallecito in San Pedro (1959, 1,376 square feet on an 11,791-square-foot lot) was withdrawn at $1,310,000 after 136 days. The trust sale at 456 W 40th Street in San Pedro (1925, 2,388 square feet) went from Under Contract to Hold at $1,295,000 at 27 days: an escrow that stopped without the home returning to Active. 2505 W 116th Street in Hawthorne (1954, 1,192 square feet) went to Hold at $685,000 six days in; its sale-condition code is NOD, a notice of default. A Hold is not a decision. In my log this month, Holds have turned into pendings within a day and into fresh Holds within a day, so I report these three as paused and nothing more.

Price Reduced — 3 Rows

Reading notes: 43 Avenida Corona in Rancho Palos Verdes (2010, 5 bed, 4,524 square feet on a 19,568-square-foot lot) came down $375,000 to $2,800,000, about $619 per foot. With the $75,000 cut I logged in April, that is $450,000 in two reductions. Space #191 at 23701 S Western Avenue in Torrance came down $5,000 to $65,000 after 66 days, and the condo at 1446 Brett Place #36 in San Pedro (1987, 1,120 square feet) came down $10,000 to $577,000 at 24 days, about $515 per foot.

Advice for Buyers

1. Rancho Palos Verdes at $2.8 million: you have two homes to compare, and they are $12,000 apart. 43 Avenida Corona is five bedrooms and 4,524 square feet on a 19,568-square-foot lot at $2,800,000, about $619 per foot, after a $375,000 cut and 515 cumulative days. 6333 Via Colinita is four bedrooms and 3,526 square feet on 9,398 at $2,788,000, about $791 per foot, on its first day. Same MLS area, built three years apart. A seller who has cut $450,000 since April is telling you they want to be finished. See both on the same afternoon, and let me pull the closed sales that tell you which per-foot number the market has actually been paying.
2. Under $500,000 on the Peninsula, the leverage just moved to you — but ask why. The one-bedroom at 3601 W Hidden Lane #309 in Rolling Hills Estates fell out of escrow and is back at $464,000 after 90 days. Yesterday the one-bedroom at #303 in the same complex cut to $469,999. Two sellers, one complex, $6,000 apart, and one of them has already lost a buyer. Before you write, find out why that buyer left. In a condominium the reason is often the building and not the unit: the lender’s project approval, the association’s reserves, a pending assessment. I will make that call for you.
3. The good ones are still gone in days, and some never reach the open market. Four of today’s six closings were on the market 11 days or fewer. The Redondo Beach duplex closed at zero days. The $12,500,000 home in Manhattan Beach went from Coming Soon to Pending without a single active day. If you are financing, have full underwriting approval before you tour. And tell me exactly what you want, at any price point, so I can watch the Coming Soon column and the quiet conversations for you. A buyer who only sees what is active is seeing part of the market.
4. Use the long-market listings. That is where the room is. 1614 The Strand in Hermosa Beach is back at $6,999,000 with 687 cumulative days. 20828 Brighton in Torrance expired yesterday and came back today at $899,990 with 122 cumulative days. 8721 Crenshaw Boulevard in Inglewood is a relist at 145. A new listing number does not change what the last four months said about the price. Those are the sellers to make an offer to, with the comparable sales in your hand.

Advice for Sellers

1. Today’s breach is a flag. It is not a forecast, and I would not change a listing plan over it. Five escrows and seven listings is twelve rows on a Monday. One row moves both of my numbers. Of the 14 earlier breaches in my series, absorption was back above 1.0 on the next session 10 times and fragility was back under 25% 11 times. Tuesdays carry real volume: 19 of my 20 Tuesdays have printed absorption at or above 1.0. Over the last seven sessions, 172 homes went into escrow against 133 new listings. If both numbers fail again tomorrow on a full day, that is different information, and you will hear it from me first.
2. Price it right on day one. Avenida Corona is what the other path costs. That home stood at $3,175,000 after an April cut, was still at $3,175,000 this morning, and today gave up another $375,000 — on the very day a neighbor in the same area listed at $2,788,000 with a clean slate. It now competes on price against a home with no history, and it does so with 515 days showing. The first two weeks of a listing are when the most buyers are looking. Let me show you the number that uses them.
3. A relist is not a reset. 20828 Brighton in Torrance expired on Sunday at $899,900 after 121 days and returned on Monday at $899,990. 1614 The Strand is back at the same $6,999,000 it showed on September 5. Buyers and their agents see cumulative days on market, and the market has already answered those prices. Trustees especially: the 40th Street trust sale in San Pedro left escrow for Hold today, and Brighton is a trust sale too. Carrying costs do not pause when the listing does. If you are going to come back, come back with a change a buyer can see.
4. For the right property, the open market is not the first step. 225 S Meadows went from Coming Soon to Pending at $12,500,000. 814 Pacific Avenue did the same thing in September and closed at $25,600,000 twelve days later. The Redondo Beach duplex on Voorhees closed today showing zero days on the market. A quiet sale is not right for every home — for most, full exposure produces the best price — but for some it produces the buyer before day one. Call me and I will tell you honestly which path fits your home.

Strategic Opportunities

1. Manhattan Beach new construction on a big lot: $12,500,000, about $2,081 per foot, and no days on market. During September I logged more than $70 million of Manhattan Beach trophy listings withdrawn, cancelled or put on Hold. Today’s row says the buyer at that level is still there for the right product: new, large, on 14,000 square feet of land. Owners of oversized Manhattan Beach lots, and builders holding finished or nearly finished homes: this is your reference point, and it was set off-market. Buyers at that level: the homes you want may be trading before you see them.
2. The Rancho Palos Verdes per-foot gap: about $619 against about $791, same area, same day. For a buyer, Avenida Corona now offers 998 more square feet and more than twice the land for $12,000 more than Via Colinita. For a seller in area 167, the pair brackets where your home will be measured this month. The closed sales will tell us which end is right, and I track them daily.
3. Small income property is trading, and the spreads are visible in one file. Two duplexes closed today: Voorhees in Redondo Beach at $1,550,000, about $994 per foot, and W 134th Street in Hawthorne at $1,040,000, about $330 per foot, after 127 days. Two more arrived: Shoup Avenue in Hawthorne at $799,000, about $438 per foot, and E Mauretania Street at $839,000, about $514 per foot. The Hawthorne closing at $330 per foot is the yardstick for the Hawthorne listing at $438. Investors: I can lay the rents next to those numbers for you. And the Hermosa Beach triplex on Loma Drive, on Hold at $3,700,000 after 36 days, is one to ask about before it comes back.
4. The first rung of the ladder: three manufactured homes and two condos under $500,000. 26200 Frampton #32 in Harbor City cleared to Pending at $184,000. 21711 Vera Street #32 in Carson arrived at $259,000 — the same 1,440 square feet, two years older, $75,000 higher. 23701 S Western Avenue #191 in Torrance cut to $65,000. A Carson condo at 1235 E Carson #5 is pending at $450,000, and the Rolling Hills Estates one-bedroom is back at $464,000. With manufactured homes, the monthly space rent matters as much as the price, so ask for it first. First-time buyers, and parents helping one: I can tell you which of these is priced to the market.

Source: CRMLS Daily Activity export dated October 5, 2026, 27 rows, controlling column “Status”, triple-pass verified. Sessions 36–37 of the historical series are reconstructed estimates. 45+ years of consecutive daily CRMLS tracking. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.