Real estate markets don’t move on feelings, headlines, or hunches. They move on supply and demand. That’s why, for more than three decades, I’ve tracked a powerful metric every single day: the difference between new listings (supply) and pending sales (demand). Watch the video below, and do not miss out on the bonus link listed under the video (scroll down).

Take a look at the chart above. This isn’t a snapshot—it’s a living record of market pressure since 1991. Each point represents the tug-of-war between buyers and sellers in the South Bay.

Here’s what you need to know:

1. The Neutral Line: Why “-20” is the Magic Number

• A reading near -20 suggests balance—neither buyers nor sellers dominate.

• Above -20 (closer to zero or higher): demand outweighs supply → buyers compete, prices climb.

• Below -20: supply exceeds demand → sellers compete, price growth slows or dips.

Think of it like a thermostat: small shifts can change the temperature of the entire market.

2. Where We Are Now

Today’s numbers are hovering closer to neutral, but not all neutral markets are created equal. Compared to the extreme buyer’s market of the early ’90s (remember the crash?) and the frenzy of the mid-2000s (remember the boom?), today’s balance looks fragile.

The past several months show that while supply has risen, demand has stayed surprisingly resilient. Translation: there isn’t a flood of inventory overwhelming buyers.

3. The Next 12 Months: Pressure is Building

Looking at the trend, here’s what the objective metrics suggest:

• Demand is not collapsing. Despite higher rates, serious buyers are still stepping in, especially for well-priced homes.

• Supply is not exploding. Homeowners locked into low mortgage rates remain reluctant to sell, keeping inventory tight.

• Result? Expect modest upward price pressure as demand inches ahead of supply. Don’t expect a crash—this doesn’t look like 2008. But don’t be surprised if the best homes sell fast and spark bidding wars.

4. What This Means for Buyers and Sellers

• For Sellers: The window is favorable. List now, and you’re more likely to compete against fewer sellers while facing buyers with pent-up demand.

• For Buyers: Waiting may cost you. If supply doesn’t surge, you’ll face rising prices—and possibly higher competition—in the months ahead.

The math doesn’t lie: hesitation has a price.

5. Bottom Line

The question isn’t whether the market will move—it’s whether you’ll move with it. My job is to help you make decisions based not on fear or hype, but on real, fact-based analysis like what you see in this chart.

If you want to know what this means for your home’s value or your next purchase, the time to start is now.

👉 Click here to contact me or scan the QR code in the chart above, and let’s talk about your best moves before the market makes them for you. And to get supply/demand trends for each of the individual cities of the South Bay, such as Hermosa Beach or Palos Verdes Estates for example, click here